There are already signs that Chinese officials are rethinking their “get tough” policy towards manufacturers of cheap goods. On August 1st the finance ministry increased export-tax rebates on a range of clothing products from 11% to 13%, and on bamboo products from 5% to 11%, in an apparent effort to help exporters of cheap goods. The closure of thousands of small factories is clearly worrying officials.
　　有迹象表明中国政府正在重新考虑其面向低端产品生产企业的”从严”政策。从八月一日起财政部增加了出口退税，一系列的服装产品从11%提高到13%, 竹制品从5%提高到11%，很明显这是来支持低端产品的出口企业。

　　As for shipping costs, many companies in China export on a “free on board” basis. So theoretically it is the buyers on the other side of the ocean who must absorb the higher fuel surcharges on freight. Of course, they are forcing sellers to share some of the cost. But large bulk purchasers, such as Home Depot or Wal-Mart, are also squeezing the shipping companies to keep the overall bill down.
　　对于船运成本，因为中国的许多出口企业是基于FOB的出口报价方式，所以理论上来讲是大洋彼岸的买家必须来消化较高的燃油附加费。当然了，他们也迫使卖方分担一些成本。但是一些大买家像美国家用品公司Home Depot 或者沃尔玛也在压榨船运公司来降低其总体成本。

　　On balance, higher shipping costs are “not as big a factor” as the rising yuan or cost of raw materials, says an executive in the Shanghai office of an American building-materials company which exports Chinese-made goods to America, India and Australia. For a typical pair of Chinese-made shoes sold in America, shipping accounts for only 3-4% of the price.
　　总而言之，较高的运费成本比起升值的人民币或者原材料成本的提高来说，并不算是个大的因素。一家出口中国制造的建筑材料到美国、印度和澳大利亚的美国公司的上海办事处的一位主管如是说。拿一双典型的在美国市场上销售的中国造的鞋子来说，海运成本仅占其销售价格的3%至4%。

　　Besides, companies will not find it easy to move their manufacturing out of China. Norman Cheng, co-founder of Strategic Sports, one of the world’s largest motorcycle and bicycle helmet-makers, with two factories in Guangdong, says if he shifted production out of China, he would have to set up factories in his two biggest markets, North America and Europe. Shipping costs would fall, but labour costs would rise and there would be fewer economies of scale.
　　除此之外，企业发现将其在中国的生产转移出去很困难。例如，世界上最大的摩托车和自行车头盔生产商之一Strategic Sports的共同创办人Norman Cheng说，如果他把其生产搬出中国，他就得在他公司的两个最大的市场北美和欧洲分别建设工厂，这样的话运费是下来了，但劳动力成本将会上升，并且因为分设两个厂而得不到规模经济所带来的成本缩减。

　　So China’s manufactured-export industry does not seem to be in imminent danger. Few companies will take the decision to leave China lightly, especially when no one knows if the price of oil will hit $200 or fall back to $100 in the coming months. A senior manager at a large Chinese electronics company, with four factories abroad, says higher shipping costs instead “give us urgency and an incentive to become significantly more efficient and competitive”.Foreign and local firms can also divert production to China’s fast-growing domestic market. There is no doubt that oil at $200 would have dire consequences, both for Chinese exporters and for other firms. But given the impact on the world economy, higher shipping costs might be the least of their worries
　　如此说来中国的制造出口业似乎并没有濒临危险。不会有很多企业会决定轻易离开中国，尤其是目前大家都不知道石油价格在未来几个月内是将上升至200美元每桶还是回落到100美元每桶。 一家拥有四家海外工厂的中国大型电子生产企业的一位高级经理说，”较高的船运成本促使我们更加注重效率和提高产品竞争力”。. 国外的和当地的厂家也可能将其生产转移至中国快速增长的国内市场。无疑200美元的石油价格将会对中国的出口企业和其他的企业产生可怕的影响。但是考虑到对世界经济的影响，较高的船运成本可能是最少值得担心的。

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