How much will rising shipping costs hurt Chinese manufacturing?　　上涨的海运成本如何损害中国的制造业？

　　ON LAND, high oil prices have ended America’s love affair with sport-utility vehicles, forcing carmakers to revamp their product line-ups. In the air, sky-high fuel costs have prompted airlines to raise ticket prices and cut routes. What about at sea? Could rising shipping costs scupper China’s export boom?
　　在陆上，高油价已结束了美国人对SUV的偏好，迫使轿车生产商们重新调整他们的生产线；在空中，过高的燃料成本也已促使各航空公司提高票价，削减空中航线；那么海上呢？上涨的船运成本有没有影响中国繁荣的出口贸易呢？

　　This question has been much discussed since Jeff Rubin and Benjamin Tal of CIBC, a Canadian bank, issued a memo a few weeks ago saying that a reversal of the great migration of manufacturing operations to China might already be under way. The cost of shipping a standard 40-foot container from Shanghai to America’s east coast, for example, has jumped from $3,000 in 2000 to about $8,000 today.The extra cost of transporting goods halfway around the world, Messrs Rubin and Tal wrote, is wiping out the often slim margins of Chinese exporters.What is more, if oil and shipping prices stay high, many Western companies that now outsource their manufacturing to China might decide that it makes more sense to shift production closer to their customers at home.
　　这个问题已经讨论的很多了，在这之前，加拿大的一家银行CIBC 的的杰夫Bubin 和本杰明Tal在几周前发表了一份备忘录，说与制造业向中国大量迁移的相反的情形，可能已经出现。一个40英尺标准集装箱从上海运到美国东海岸的海运费已经从2000年时的3000美元飞涨到今天的大约8000美元。Rubin 和Tal在备忘录中提到，绕地球半周的货运所增加的成本正在吞吃掉中国出口企业业已微薄的利润空间。更甚者，如果油价和海运价格继续保持高位，那么许多现在将生产放在中国的西方公司可能会认为将生产转移到距离其消费市场更近的地方会更具商业意义。

　　Such scenarios would entail a huge shift in global trade patterns. Stephen Jen of Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, says higher shipping costs could even sound the death knell of the entire East Asian export model.This is because so many of the finished goods that China exports to America and Europe are made from components imported from Taiwan, Japan or South Korea. Clearly, affordable transport costs are an essential ingredient in this regional production matrix.
　　这样的构想可能会引发全球贸易格局的巨大改变。投资银行摩根·斯坦利的施蒂芬·Jen说更高的海运成本甚至可能敲响整个东亚出口贸易模式的丧钟。这是因为众多的中国出口到美欧的制成品是由来自台湾、日本和南韩的零部件在中国组装加工成的。显然，较低的运费成本在这种区域性的产品制造链矩阵中是很重要的一环。

　　Exporters in China are certainly feeling the pain of higher shipping costs. The Transpacific Stabilization Agreement bunker charge, a benchmark fuel surcharge imposed by shipping firms on sea freight, has risen from $455 per 40-foot equivalent unit in January 2007 to $1,130. Shipments to Europe face similar increases. In the first half of 2008 the growth rate of Chinese exports slowed to 21.9% from 27.6% a year earlier. In Guangdong province, the traditional heart of China’s export manufacturing, growth plunged to 13% from 26.5%.
　　中国的出口商确实正在感受到高运费所带来的痛苦。泛太平洋运价稳定协议组织的燃油附加费，一项船运公司在海上货物运输方面所使用的基准燃料额外收费，其每40英尺集装箱所相当的货物单位的费用已经从2007年1月的455美元上涨到1130美元。到欧洲的海上运输面临着相似的燃油附加费的增长。2008年的上半年中国出口增长率从一年前的27.6%放缓至21.9%。在广东，这个中国外贸出口的传统核心省份，出口业务增长率从26.5%跌至13%。

　　But if there is a migration of manufacturing from China, it is hardly an exodus. Even the latest trade figures do not show a fall in Chinese exports-only a drop in their pace of growth. And this can be attributed to a number of factors, including China’s stronger currency (up almost 7% against the dollar this year), upward pressure on domestic wages, less generous Chinese government incentives for low-end exporters and weakening foreign demand.
　　但是如果说可能有中国制造业的向外转移的情况出现，也不会是一次大转移。就连最新的贸易数据也没有显示出中国外贸出口的下降，只是增速的回落。这归因于一系列的因素，包括中国走强的货币（今年人民币兑美元上涨了近7%）、国内工资的上涨压力、中国政府对低端产品出口企业的支持下降和趋弱的国际需求。

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