由于合理的货币政策，这些年全球范围内的通货膨胀维持在一个较低的水平。但这个暴徒现在已经悄然潜回。

　　Double-digit price rises are about to afflict two-thirds of the world’s population
　　两位数的通胀将会困扰全球三分之二的人

　　RONALD REAGAN once described inflation as being “as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hit-man”. Until recently, central bankers thought that this thug had been locked up for life. Thanks to sound monetary policies, inflation worldwide had stayed low in recent years. But the mugger is back on the prowl.
　　罗纳德里根曾经这样形容通货膨胀—“它如强盗般凶猛，武匪般骇人，杀手般致命”。直到最近，中央银行都以为这个恶棍已经被终身囚禁起来。由于合理的货币政策，这些年全球范围内的通货膨胀维持在一个较低的水平。但这个暴徒现在已经悄然潜回。

　　Even though America is close to recession and growth in other developed economies has slowed, inflation is rising. Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, this week gave warning about the mistakes of the 1970s, when inflation was let loose at huge cost to growth. His words were aimed at rich-country central banks, but policymakers in emerging economies are the ones who should most take heed. In countries such as China, India, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia even the often dodgy official statistics show prices have risen by 8-10% over the past year; in Russia the rate is over 14%; in Argentina the true figure is 23% and in Venezuela it is 29%. If you measure the numbers correctly, two-thirds of the world’s population will probably suffer double-digit rates of inflation this summer (see article).
　　即使美 国即将面临衰退，其他发达国家经济增长也已放缓，通货膨胀却日益严重。欧洲中央银行主席让-克洛德·特里谢本周警告世界不要重蹈70年代的覆辙，当时通胀 肆虐给经济带来严重损失。他的话针对发达国家的中央银行，但新兴经济政策制定者们也应该留心。在中国，印度，印度尼西亚，沙特等国，即使是经过处理官方数 字也显示在过去的一年里，价格上升了8%至10%，俄罗斯超过14%，阿根廷的真实数据是23%，而委内瑞拉是29%。如果正确统计数字，今夏全球三分之 二的人将深受两位数通货膨胀之苦。

　　A 1970s reunion you really don’t want to attend
　　昨日不要重现

　　Taken as a whole (and using official figures), the average world inflation rate has risen to 5.5%, its highest since 1999. The main cause has been the surge in the prices of food and oil, which briefly soared above $135 a barrel this week. But Mr Trichet’s concern is that higher headline rates could push up inflation expectations, leading to bigger pay demands, and so trigger a wage-price spiral, as in the 1970s. Central bankers’ mistake then was to hold monetary policy too loose, so that higher oil prices quickly fed into other prices. So it is worrying that global monetary policy is now at its loosest since the 1970s: the average world real interest rate is negative.
　　整体而言（使用官方数据），全球平均通货膨胀率今 年上升到自1999年以来新高的5.5%。这主要是因为食品和石油价格的上涨，后者本周突破135美元一桶。特里谢先生担心，现在的情况可能如同70年代 一样，更高的整体通货膨胀率会提升通货膨胀预期，引发大幅加薪的需求，从而引发工资价格的螺旋上升。70年代各中央银行错在货币政策太宽松，从而使高油价 迅速体现在其他价格当中。现在的货币政策是70年代以来最宽松的—世界平均实际利率为负—这一事实令人格外担忧。

　　By slashing interest rates as inflation has climbed, has the Fed sowed the seeds of a new inflationary era? That case looks hard to prove in the rich world. Inflation rates of 3.9% in America and 3.3% in the euro area are far higher than central banks want, and inflation expectations are rising. If growth in the euro area remains robust, the ECB should certainly worry more about inflation. Yet so far there is little sign that higher food and oil prices are pushing up other prices in the rich economies. Wages have remained relatively subdued and core rates of inflation (excluding food and energy) are little higher than a year ago. Moreover, growth is expected to be below trend in America and Europe over the next year or so and unemployment is likely to climb, which will help to curb wage rises. America’s consumer-confidence index has fallen to a 28-year low, which suggests that consumer spending will fall. This, in turn, will spur firms to cut costs and limit pay rises.
　　在 通货膨胀率上升时大幅削减利率，联储是否埋下通胀的祸根？在发达国家恐怕很难这样说。美国通货膨胀率是3.9%，欧元区为3.3%，都远高于中央银行的目 标，并且通货膨胀还在上升。如果欧元区发展持续强劲,欧洲中央银行就肯定会更加担心通货膨胀了。然而到目前为止没有迹象表明在发达国家食品石油价格的上涨 也拉高了其他价格，工资相对比较稳定，核心通货膨胀率（除去食品和能源）并不比去年高多少。据估计大约一年以后，美国和欧洲的增长将会减慢，失业率将上 升，这有助于抑制工资上升。美国消费者信心指数已经跌至28年来最低，意味着消费支出降低，这又会刺激企业进一步削减成本，控制工资上升。

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